fix(showcase): require emitted data above achievedDepth for isRegression

A cell is a regression only when the next rung above achievedDepth has
emitted data (exists && status !== null). Drops the no-data-D5 false
positive (mapped but unemitted D5) while keeping red-below-ceiling and
D3-red regressions.

Author: jpr5

showcase/shell-dashboard/src/components/__tests__/cell-matrix.test.tsx

@@ -292,13 +292,15 @@ describe("CellMatrix", () => {
   it("filters to rows with regressions when filter=regressions", () => {
     // Uses buildCellModel D3/D4/D5 depth model (not the old D0-D6 ladder).
     //
-    // lgp/agentic-chat: e2e row GREEN (D3 passes), chat row GREEN (D4 passes),
-    //   but "agentic-chat" has a CATALOG_TO_D5_KEY mapping so ceiling=5.
-    //   No D5 PB rows → D5 status=null → achieved=4 < ceiling=5 → REGRESSION.
+    // lgp/agentic-chat: e2e GREEN (D3), chat GREEN (D4), and an EMITTED RED
+    //   D5 row. "agentic-chat" maps to a CATALOG_TO_D5_KEY so ceiling=5;
+    //   achieved=4 < ceiling=5 AND the next rung (D5) has emitted data
+    //   (status='red') → genuine REGRESSION (unification C requires emitted
+    //   data above achievedDepth, so a no-data D5 would NOT count).
     //
-    // lgp/no-d5-feature: e2e row GREEN (D3 passes), chat row GREEN (D4 passes),
-    //   "no-d5-feature" has NO CATALOG_TO_D5_KEY mapping → ceiling=4.
-    //   achieved=4 === ceiling=4 → NOT a regression.
+    // lgp/no-d5-feature: e2e GREEN (D3), chat GREEN (D4), "no-d5-feature" has
+    //   NO CATALOG_TO_D5_KEY mapping → ceiling=4. achieved=4 === ceiling=4 →
+    //   NOT a regression.
     const regressFeatures = [
       { id: "agentic-chat", name: "Agentic Chat", category: "chat-ui" },
       { id: "no-d5-feature", name: "No D5 Feature", category: "platform" },
@@ -331,6 +333,9 @@ describe("CellMatrix", () => {
       row("e2e:lgp/agentic-chat", "e2e", "green"),
       row("e2e:lgp/no-d5-feature", "e2e", "green"),
       row("chat:lgp", "chat", "green"),
+      // Emitted RED D5 keeps agentic-chat a genuine regression under the
+      // refined (unification C) rule — a missing D5 row would be no-data.
+      row("d5:lgp/agentic-chat", "d5", "red"),
     ]);
     const oneIntegration = [
       { slug: "lgp", name: "LangGraph Python", tier: "reference" as const },
@@ -347,7 +352,7 @@ describe("CellMatrix", () => {
         referenceSlug="lgp"
       />,
     );
-    // agentic-chat: achieved=4 < ceiling=5 → regression → visible
+    // agentic-chat: achieved=4 < ceiling=5, D5 emitted red → regression → visible
     expect(queryByText("Agentic Chat")).not.toBeNull();
     // no-d5-feature: achieved=4 === ceiling=4 → at ceiling → hidden
     expect(queryByText("No D5 Feature")).toBeNull();

showcase/shell-dashboard/src/lib/__tests__/cell-model.test.ts

@@ -718,6 +718,41 @@ describe("buildCellModel", () => {
       });
       expect(notWired.isRegression).toBe(false);
     });
+
+    // ── refinement (unification C): the next rung above achievedDepth must
+    //    have EMITTED data (exists && status !== null) for a cell to count
+    //    as a regression. A mapped-but-unemitted D5 (status === null) is
+    //    no-data, not a slide-back. ──
+    it("is FALSE when the next rung (D5) is mapped but has no emitted data", () => {
+      // D3 green + D4 green, D5 mapped but NO d5 rows emitted →
+      // achieved=4, ceiling=5, d5.exists=true but d5.status===null.
+      // No data above achieved → NOT a regression.
+      const live = mapOf([
+        row(keyFor("e2e", "agno", "agentic-chat"), "e2e", "green"),
+        row(keyFor("chat", "agno"), "chat", "green"),
+      ]);
+      const model = buildCellModel(live, wiredInput("agno", "agentic-chat"));
+      expect(model.achievedDepth).toBe(4);
+      expect(model.ceilingDepth).toBe(5);
+      expect(model.d5?.exists).toBe(true);
+      expect(model.d5?.status).toBeNull();
+      expect(model.isRegression).toBe(false);
+    });
+
+    it("is TRUE when the next rung (D5) is below ceiling AND emitted red data", () => {
+      // D3 green + D4 green + D5 red → achieved=4, ceiling=5, and d5 has
+      // emitted (status==='red'). A real slide-back → regression.
+      const live = mapOf([
+        row(keyFor("e2e", "agno", "agentic-chat"), "e2e", "green"),
+        row(keyFor("chat", "agno"), "chat", "green"),
+        row(keyFor("d5", "agno", "agentic-chat"), "d5", "red"),
+      ]);
+      const model = buildCellModel(live, wiredInput("agno", "agentic-chat"));
+      expect(model.achievedDepth).toBe(4);
+      expect(model.ceilingDepth).toBe(5);
+      expect(model.d5?.status).toBe("red");
+      expect(model.isRegression).toBe(true);
+    });
   });
 
   // ── e2e staleness downgrade (false-green D3 bug) ────────────────────

showcase/shell-dashboard/src/lib/cell-model.ts

@@ -405,9 +405,32 @@ export function buildCellModel(
     chipColor = "red";
   }
 
-  // isRegression: a cell has slid below its own ceiling — tests exist
-  // (ceilingDepth > 0) but the contiguous passing depth is short of them.
-  const isRegression = ceilingDepth > 0 && achievedDepth < ceilingDepth;
+  // isRegression: a cell has slid below its own ceiling. Beyond
+  // `achievedDepth < ceilingDepth`, the NEXT rung above `achievedDepth` must
+  // have EMITTED data — `exists && status !== null` — for the slide-back to
+  // be real. A mapped-but-unemitted D5 (e.g. achieved=4, ceiling=5, but
+  // `d5.status === null` because no d5 rows have ticked) is no-data, not a
+  // regression: flagging it would paint every D5-mapped cell amber the moment
+  // its D5 driver hasn't run yet. A present RED/AMBER next rung (status !==
+  // null) still counts — that is a genuine failure below the ceiling.
+  //
+  // Next-rung map by achievedDepth: 0→d3, 3→d4, 4→d5, 5→d6.
+  const nextRung: TestLevel | null =
+    achievedDepth === 0
+      ? d3
+      : achievedDepth === 3
+        ? d4
+        : achievedDepth === 4
+          ? d5
+          : achievedDepth === 5
+            ? d6
+            : null;
+  const isRegression =
+    ceilingDepth > 0 &&
+    achievedDepth < ceilingDepth &&
+    nextRung !== null &&
+    nextRung.exists &&
+    nextRung.status !== null;
 
   return {
     supported: true,