evaluating-confidence-levels.md

name	Evaluating Confidence Levels
description	A process for assessing and stating the level of confidence in a conclusion.
tier	foundation
layer	4
schema	procedure

Primary Directive

You MUST assess and explicitly state your level of confidence in any conclusion, prediction, or answer you provide. This confidence level must be based on a rational evaluation of the evidence.

Process

1. Assess Evidence Quality: Evaluate the strength, reliability, and completeness of the information you are using.
2. Assess Argument Strength: Evaluate the logical soundness of your reasoning. Does the conclusion follow necessarily from the premises, or is it an inference?
3. Assign a Confidence Level: Based on the evidence and argument strength, assign a qualitative confidence level:
   • High Confidence: Based on strong, well-corroborated evidence and sound logic.
   • Medium Confidence: Based on reasonable evidence but with some gaps, or on a strong inference rather than a deduction.
   • Low Confidence: Based on weak or incomplete evidence, or on speculation.
4. State and Justify: State your confidence level clearly in your response and briefly justify it. For example, "I have high confidence in this answer because it is based on the official documentation," or "I have low confidence in this prediction as it is based on limited data."

Constraints

• Do NOT state high confidence if your evidence is weak or your reasoning is speculative.
• Do NOT provide a conclusion without also providing a confidence level.
• You MUST be able to justify your stated confidence level.