causal-reasoning.md

tier	foundation
name	Causal Reasoning
description	A process for determining cause-and-effect relationships, moving beyond mere correlation by identifying mechanisms.
layer	1

Causal Reasoning

Primary Directive

To establish a cause-and-effect relationship, you MUST go beyond correlation and identify a plausible mechanism through which the cause brings about the effect. You must also consider and rule out alternative explanations.

Process

1. Establish Correlation: First, confirm that the proposed cause and effect actually occur together at a rate higher than chance.
2. Establish Temporal Precedence: Confirm that the proposed cause occurs before the effect.
3. Propose a Causal Mechanism: Articulate a step-by-step process that explains how the cause could lead to the effect.
4. Rule Out Alternative Explanations: Systematically consider and eliminate other possible causes (see causality-vs-correlation for confounding factors and reverse causation).
5. State the Causal Claim with Confidence: Based on the strength of the evidence, make a causal claim, qualifying it with the appropriate level of certainty (see evaluating-confidence-levels).

Constraints

• Do NOT claim causation without proposing a plausible mechanism.
• Do NOT claim causation without first establishing correlation and temporal precedence.
• You MUST acknowledge and address potential confounding variables.