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UQ reorg · Page 3 + new module uq_stress_depth.py (stress/effective-stress/strain at depth) #5

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@mdenolle

New code. src/codameter/uq_stress_depth.py: turn the $\delta V_S/V_S(z)$ posterior into effective stress and strain profiles with a combined (aleatoric ⊕ epistemic) covariance.

Decisions (Marine, 2026-06-26):

  • Headline = effective stress σ'(z) + strain ε(z). Total stress (σ = σ' + α_B·p) is an optional, deferred extension — build only if asked (needs a pore-pressure term + Biot α prior).
  • β(z), μ′(z) layered, optionally inferred from tomography (Vp, Vs).
  • MC pushforward (delta-method fallback), mirroring theory-uq §6 / tutorial-05 fig-mc.

Then create quarto/uncertainty-3-stress.qmd and fold in theory-uq §3–7 (regimes, coupling model-selection, priors, propagation, predictive checks). Add tests/test_uq_stress_depth.py.

See quarto/REORG_PLAN.md §5, §6 steps 3–4.

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