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This repository was archived by the owner on Jul 2, 2026. It is now read-only.
This repository was archived by the owner on Jul 2, 2026. It is now read-only.

Impute the Schedule-D-routed share of capital gain distributions (line 13) within long_term_capital_gains #1176

Description

@MaxGhenis

Summary

The enhanced CPS carries capital gain distributions only for filers who report them without Schedule D (non_sch_d_capital_gains = PUF E01100, ~$13.7B in 2026 across 4.0M tax units). Filers with a Schedule D report their capital gain distributions on Schedule D line 13, where they are folded into long_term_capital_gains (PUF P23250) and are no longer separable. That Schedule-D-routed slice is most of the dollars: ICI reports mutual fund shareholders reinvested $234B of capital gain distributions in 2023 alone (all account types), and ~23M households hold ~$7T of long-term mutual fund assets in nonretirement accounts.

Without separating this component, PolicyEngine cannot model reforms that treat fund distributions differently from other realized gains — currently requested for the GROWTH Act (H.R. 2089 / S. 1839), which would defer tax on automatically reinvested RIC capital gain dividends (see PolicyEngine/policyengine-us#8828 for the companion model fix).

Proposal

Add a capital_gain_distributions_in_ltcg (name TBD) imputed component of long_term_capital_gains:

  1. Donor/target source: SOI Sales of Capital Assets study publishes capital gain distribution totals and their share of net long-term gains by AGI class; SOI Individual Complete Report tables provide line-item aggregates for calibration targets.
  2. Imputation: predict the distribution share of each record's LTCG conditional on AGI, total LTCG, age, and filing status (microimpute), then calibrate to the SOI aggregates by AGI band (microcalibrate) — same pattern as existing PUF-variable imputations.
  3. RIC/REIT split: Schedule D line 13 includes REIT capital gain dividends, which are not RIC distributions (subchapter M part II vs part I). Apportion using ICI (fund industry distributions) vs NAREIT data; reforms like the GROWTH Act apply only to the RIC share.
  4. Consistency: non_sch_d_capital_gains + the new component should reconcile against total capital gain distribution aggregates.

Note the base is inherently taxable-account-only (tax-deferred accounts do not pass distributions through to 1099-DIV), so no retirement-account carve-out is needed.

Motivation

Requested by The Tax Project for GROWTH Act analysis (revenue and household impacts of deferring reinvested capital gain distributions). Layer B (reinvestment/DRIP fraction, from ICI data as a sensitivity parameter) and Layer C (multi-year recapture timing) build on this but are out of scope here.

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